How to use this tab: The USDA revises its cotton supply & use estimates monthly as new data arrives. This tab shows how those estimates have changed across successive WASDE reports — useful for understanding which crops/regions are subject to frequent revision and by how much.
Select a region and attribute, then choose which marketing years to overlay. The table shows the estimate published each month; the chart shows the revision trend over time. Large swings indicate high uncertainty or late-breaking supply/demand shifts.

Country Comparison — Track how supply & use estimates evolve across WASDE reports for each country. Select an attribute, choose countries to compare, and pick a time frame. Hover over any point for the exact value and report date.

ATTRIBUTE: TIME:

COUNTRIES:

Shows how much the USDA revised its Ending Stocks estimate each month relative to the May first projection. + = revised up from May; − = cut. Each line = one marketing year. Persistent downward lines = seasons where early optimism was walked back.

What is WASDE Forecast Reliability?

Each month, the USDA publishes cotton supply & use estimates. But how accurate are the early estimates compared to the final outcome?

This page measures forecast error for each attribute (Production, Exports, Ending Stocks, etc.) by comparing the May estimate (first projection of the season) against the final August estimate of the following year — the closest thing to a "true" outcome.

RMSE (Root Mean Square Error) — the average size of the error in million bales. A lower RMSE means the early estimate was more accurate.
90% CI — 90% of final outcomes fell within this range of the early estimate. For example, a 90% CI of ±2.5M on U.S. Production means the May forecast was within 2.5M bales of the final number 9 times out of 10.

Key insight: U.S. production is highly uncertain early in the season (planting/weather risk), while World Ending Stocks tends to be revised significantly as consumption data from Asia arrives late.